Odds Now At 90% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.00% At the October 29, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 3.75% - 4.00% at the October 29^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 7.00%.

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On Jobs and Immigration Policy

  

 From the September 17, 2025 post-FOMC-meeting press conference:
 

"...CHAIR POWELL. Well, I was -- I was saying that what's happening in the labor market has more to do with immigration than it has to do with tariffs. That was the question I was answering.

So I wouldn't say that all of what's happening in the labor market is due to tariffs. I mean, you clearly have a slowing due to immigration. You clearly have a slowing in demand, which is now perhaps more than that in supply. And we know that because the unemployment rate has ticked up. So that's how -- that's what I meant by that..."

 And here's the latest from the White House, on the H-1B Visa program:

"...On Friday, September 19, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed a Proclamation, 'Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers,' that took an important, initial, and incremental step to reform the H-1B visa program to curb abuses and protect American workers.

This Proclamation:

    Requires a $100,000 payment to accompany any new H-1B visa petitions submitted after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on September 21, 2025. This includes the 2026 lottery, and any other H-1B petitions submitted after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on September 21, 2025..."

In energy news, a potential inflation-stoker: for the week which ended on September 12, 2025, crude oil inventories decline by -9,3000,000 barrels, while the year-on-year change was -2,200,000 barrels.😐

Drivers out there may already see higher prices at the pumps...🛢😒⛽ 😑

       Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.25% on September 17, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 7.00% at the October 29^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)

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