Prime Rate Forecast

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Odds Now At 90% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.00% At the October 29, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 3.75% - 4.00% at the October 29TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 7.00%.

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On Jobs and Immigration Policy
  
 From the September 17, 2025 post-FOMC-meeting press conference:
 

"...CHAIR POWELL. Well, I was -- I was saying that what's happening in the labor market has more to do with immigration than it has to do with tariffs. That was the question I was answering.

So I wouldn't say that all of what's happening in the 
labor market is due to tariffs. I mean, you clearly have a slowing due to immigration. You clearly have a slowing in demand, which is now perhaps more than that in supply. And we know that because the unemployment rate has ticked up. So that's how -- that's what I meant by that..."

 And here's the latest from the White House, on the H-1B Visa program:

"...On Friday, September 19, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed a Proclamation, 'Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers,' that took an important, initial, and incremental step to reform the H-1B visa program to curb abuses and protect American workers.

This Proclamation:

    Requires a $100,000 payment to accompany any new H-1B visa petitions submitted after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on September 21, 2025. This includes the 2026 lottery, and any other H-1B petitions submitted after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on September 21, 2025..."

www.FedPrimeRate.com

In energy news, a potential inflation-stoker: for the week which ended on September 12, 2025, crude oil inventories decline by -9,3000,000 barrels, while the year-on-year change was -2,200,000 barrels.😐

Drivers out there may already see higher prices at the pumps...
🛢😒 😑

       Stay tuned...
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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.25% on September 17, 2025.
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SUMMARY

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 7.00% at the October 29TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule for 2025 & 2026

FOMC Meeting Schedule for 2025 and 2026

👇: Here's the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting schedule for 2025 and 2026.

Why is this schedule important to you? Because it's at these monetary policy meetings that the FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to the target range for Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, the United States Prime Rate (also known as the Fed Prime Rate) will also change (how the United States Prime Rate works):

======👇2025👇======

======👇2026👇======

  • January 28, 2026

  • March 18, 2026

  • April 29, 2026

  • June 17, 2026

  • July 29, 2026

  • September 16, 2026

  • October 28, 2026

  • December 9, 2026

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  • January 27, 2027

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Friday, September 19, 2025

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule for 2027

FOMC Meeting Schedule for 2027👇: Here's the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting schedule for 2027.

Why is this schedule important to you?

Because it's at these monetary policy meetings that the FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to the target range for Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, the United States Prime Rate (also known as the Fed Prime Rate) will also change (click here to see how the United States Prime Rate works):

======👇2027👇======

  • January 27, 2027

  • March 17, 2027

  • April 28, 2027

  • June 9, 2027

  • July 28, 2027

  • September 15, 2027

  • October 27, 2027

  • December 8, 2027

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  • January 26, 2028

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Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Sixth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2025 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Lowered to 7.25%

United States Prime Rate is LOWERED to 7.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2025 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to lower the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 7.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower
 the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgagebacked securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of
 monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policyas appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.
.."

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Saturday, September 06, 2025

Odds Now At 100% (CERTAIN) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.25% At the September 17, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 4.00% - 4.25% at the September 17TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 7.25%.

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The Latest Jobs Data have
 Sealed the Rate-Cut Deal
 
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Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.
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SUMMARY

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to  7.25% at the September 17TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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