Odds Now At 50% (UNCERTAIN) the United States Prime Rate Will RISE to 7.25% After the October 28, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 50% (uncertain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), from the current 3.75% - 4.00%, to 4.00% - 4.25%, at the October 28^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would cause the United States Prime Rate to rise to 7.25%.

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Inflation Pressures Persist...

• Year-on-year, during the month of August, the change in Import Prices soared to 7.0%...😕. Tariffs to blame? You betcha'. 
  
  

  

  Import Prices
  August 2026 UPDATE 

• Crude oil inventories remain concerning. As of last week, inventories were -109,700,000 barrels (-13.37%) compared to a year ago... 🛢😓🛢
  
  NYMEX WTI Crude Oil for future delivery finished the week at $92.44 per barrel in New York.

  

  

If you've been shopping for a new laptop lately, and the prices seemed high, it was not your imagination.

 

The explosion in data-center construction has prompted memory-chip makers to focus on making components for this market.  As a result, memory chips for laptops, both RAM and NAND (SSD), have become scarce.

First it was your electricity bill...And now this...☛💻☚

  Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 7.00% on September 16, 2026.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 7.25% after the October 28^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 50% (uncertain.)

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Sixth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Raised to 7.00%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate t 3.75% - 4.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now at 7.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability..."

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Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) the United States Prime Rate Will RISE to 7.00% At the September 16, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), from the current 3.50% - 3.75%, to 3.75% - 4.00%, at the September 16^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would cause the United States Prime Rate to rise to 7.00%.

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The Fed Can No Longer Stall On a Rate Increase...

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of July, moved sideways, from +3.3% to +3.3%. 
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged higher,  from +3.36% to +3.4%. 
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, edged lower, from 2.48% to +2.45%.

• Y-o-Y, for the month of August, the Producer Price Index surged from 4.8% to 5.4%.
  
  
• Crude oil inventories continue to dwindle. As of last week, inventories were -120,500,000 barrels (-14.52%) compared to a year ago... 🛢😳🛢
  
  NYMEX WTI Crude Oil for future delivery finished the week @ $99.99 per barrel in New York.
  
  
• According to the latest Employment Situation report, the American economy added 162,000 jobs during August of this year, while the unemployment rate held steady @ 4.1%.
  
  The Civilian Labor Force Participation rate was 61.6%.  During August of 2025, it was 62.3%.  

  Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 7.00% after the September 16^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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