Seventh FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 7.00%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% - 4.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 7.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 10 – 2 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated. The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting..."

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Odds Now At 100% (CERTAIN) the United States Prime Rate Will Remain at 7.00% After the October 28, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 3.75% - 4.00% at the October 28^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate remaining at 7.00%.

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Stubborn Inflation...

•  Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of August, moved sideways, from +3.0% to +3.0%. 
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from +3.4% to +3.74%. 
  • 
    
    • The Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, increased from +2.45% to +2.56%.
• Y-o-Y, for the month of September, the Producer Price Index surged from 5.6% to 6.3%.
  
  
• The American economy added a modest 29,000 jobs during September, 2026.
  
  
• During September, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note was 4.99%.
   
• During September, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was @ 6.86% 😒.
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of September, Retail Sales were +6.29%. 
   
• The drain on crude oil inventories continues. As of last week, Y-o-Y, inventories were -136,200,000 barrels (-16.38%)... 🛢😕🛢
  
  NYMEX WTI Crude Oil for future delivery finished last week at $103.44 per barrel in New York.  It is currently trading at $101.18.

  

  Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 7.00% on September 16, 2026.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at the current 7.00% after the October 28^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Sixth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Raised to 7.00%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate t 3.75% - 4.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now at 7.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability..."

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Fifth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Remains at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"....The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting..."

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Fourth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability..."

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Third FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of  monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy, as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time..."

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